Why the Baseline BRT should be Ottawa's next big transit expansion (and the LRT 3 shouldn't be)

By Laine Johnson

With the O-Train service now running south to the airport, the east and west expansions a year or two from service, and Line 1 rail service serving downtown, City Council will soon be turning its attention to – and making funding decisions about – the next stage of public transit expansion.

No one is happy with the state of transit in Ottawa right now. Years of underfunding have reduced the frequency, reach, and reliability of our bus service. The City, on its own, has no way of rebuilding OC Transpo (and the public’s faith in it) without either senior government financing or untenable property tax increases.

It’s a shameful situation of which no member of Council is proud, but for which we haven’t found a reasonable solution.

There is a way.

Later this year, as part of the City’s regular review of its Master Transportation Plan, Council will be asked to consider the next steps in expanding Ottawa’s transit network. As it stands, the plan points to a Stage 3 extension of the Light Rail Transit lines, spending at least $6.5 billion to reach Kanata, Stittsville, and Barrhaven.

Light Rail made a lot of sense when we were looking at ways to move people in and out of the downtown without having to deal with congestion. Many of us will remember the hours spent sitting on a cross-town bus that was stuck in a traffic jam at Albert and Bay. Line 1, with its below-grade tunnel, skips through the mess of cars and trucks.

Not a unique situation, I know: we’re seeing increased congestion on many suburban roads, too, and it’s one of the causes of late and cancelled buses on places like Baseline Road, Merivale, Carling, and elsewhere. And if we don’t create a viable alternative for people moving, it will only get worse.

Looking ahead, the City’s Official Plan states that 50% of all new homes will be built in the existing urban area. Practically speaking, it’s inside the Greenbelt. This means a dramatic transformation for the mature neighbourhoods that ring the urban core. The City is already reviewing and approving high rises that will bring thousands more people to the Baseline corridor with no capacity to move them efficiently.

That’s where the proposed Baseline Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project comes in. Under development for over 10 years, the Baseline BRT would transform Baseline Road to create a pair of dedicated bus lanes down the centre, with new transit stations at major intersections. It would also install wider sidewalks, better pedestrian crossings, and bike lanes.

Dedicated bus lanes will have the same effect as the LRT’s tunnel – allowing buses to move past congestion and keep to their schedules. It will also connect to the LRT at key stations such as Heron, Algonquin and Bayshore.

The current plan is for the Baseline BRT to run 13.8 km from Heron to Bayshore, but several councillors have wondered whether it would be practical to extend it further west to Stittsville and Kanata South through Robertson Road, which are also projected to see explosive growth over the next 20 years.

And with a price tag at around $400 million in 2022 dollars, the BRT is wildly affordable compared to the cost of rail extensions. Through this project, the City can show the Provincial and Federal governments that we have a practical, reliable, and economical plan to move people through our city, right now.

Better yet, it’s a good way to demonstrate to residents that transit can once again be reliable, predictable, and efficient, and draw people out of their cars and back to public transportation for the trips that make sense. I think, given our history, that residents are bringing what I’m calling a healthy skepticism to all things public transit in Ottawa. College Ward is no exception, and I have received several inquiries on the subject.

The first project associated with the Baseline Rapid Transit Corridor is the intersection improvement coming to Baseline and Greenbank this spring, for which the City has been reserving funds for several years since its initial identification in 2013. When my office held an open house for this project back in 2024, residents expressed their surprise. How could a project, planned as early as 2013, still be relevant today after COVID and changing travel patterns turned public transit upside down? Could a single intersection improvement make any difference if the rest of the corridor remains unfunded?

It was important for the City to provide myself and residents of College Ward assurances that the Baseline BRT still had the quantitative underpinning to support its construction. In a recent webinar with over 250 attendees from across the City, we learned that route 88 is one of the healthiest rebounds in transit routes across the city post-COVID. We have the funds in place to do the intersection upgrade, and the City is confident the upgrade still improves service along the corridor without securing the entire project first.

And for those who are concerned about the potential time savings being worth the squeeze, currently pegged at 11 minutes through the Baseline corridor, I would suggest that there’s a larger city-building view to take with that. For sure, it’s 11 minutes per person, which is a multiplier across riders: let’s say 10,000 people a day by 2031. But the impact on reliability for those 10,000 riders to make their connections creates a knock-on effect for more people to comfortably choose transit for those trips that suit them. The City needs to right this toppled apple cart of transit economics. One of the levers is increased ridership. We need to improve service now, and that doesn’t happen by betting it all on the support of other levels of government for Stage 3 LRT.

Baseline BRT is only the first of several possible but similar affordable projects, including a Carling BRT, Greenbank BRT to Barrhaven, Cumberland BRT, etc., that can make public transit a useful option for residents again. I think it’s time that the City cuts its losses with Stage 3 LRT and pivots the Transportation Master Plan to prioritize bus rapid transit, starting with Baseline. By doing so, we significantly improve the Long-Range Financial Plan for OC Transpo, we deliver it using a technology that is reliable, and we show up as a creative partner with other levels of government. We might further modify our existing plans to think about ‘BRT lite’ designs for transit priority, decreasing our costs to build. We can do better to deliver transit in tandem with intensification which understandably gives current residents anxiety about what a car-dependent system will do for their experiences in congestion. People want to get where they are going, faster. Bus rapid transit can make that happen faster.

I’m looking forward to this discussion at the Transportation Master Plan meetings this spring and to restoring the public’s faith in transit.

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Today, the Public Works and Infrastructure Committee unanimously approved my motion to improve road safety across Ottawa. Here's my motion:

WHEREAS speeding continues to be one of the most significant road‑safety concerns raised by residents across the City of Ottawa, particularly in residential neighbourhoods and school zones where vulnerable road users, including children, are at heightened risk; and

WHEREAS recent City data has shown a substantial increase in speeding in school zones, with compliance dropping from 87 percent to 41 percent within a 12‑week period following the removal of Automated Speed Enforcement (ASE) cameras, and high‑end speeding increasing from 0.3 percent to over 4 percent during the same period; and

Whereas speed data is an important input in understanding risk related to more serious collisions; and

WHEREAS the city’s current approach to collecting speed data is limited and does not provide a full picture of speeds across the roadway network, and

WHEREAS other jurisdictions across Canada and internationally are increasingly incorporating innovative, technology‑enabled, and data‑driven approaches—including, predictive analytics, and AI‑supported monitoring systems—to inform their road safety programs; and

WHEREAS the City of Ottawa is currently undertaking work to update the Road Safety Action Plan, which will guide the road safety priorities for the next term of Council; and

WHEREAS this work presents an opportunity to modernize and strengthen the inputs used to make informed data-driven decisions about road safety;

THERFORE BE IT RESOLVED THAT staff, through the update to the City’s Road Safety Action Plan, leverage advanced data analytics, predictive modelling, and AI‑supported technologies, where appropriate, to enhance the City’s ability to identify, monitor, and respond to speeding trends and inform road safety priorities

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED THAT staff consider speed management as a focus area when developing the Road Safety Action Plan that will be presented to Council in 2027. 

Read the Year Three Progress Report

Dear Neighbours,

I am pleased to provide you with the College Ward Annual
Progress Report, showing the work that we did in 2025. I work hard every day to represent you on the
issues that are important to our neighbourhoods.

I hope this Progress Report is informative of the projects we
took on last year, and that it demonstrates my continuing
transparency and accountability to you. There is still more
always to do, and I list some future areas of interest.

Warm regards,
Laine

The news this week wasn’t good. Thousands of bus trips cancelled again in February. LRT down to one train for the foreseeable future. When it comes to Ottawa’s public transit, it seems there’s never good news.

Even the announcement of progress on the LRT East project was met with cynicism, given that the trains that Line 1 uses continue to have “spalling” issues with the wheel assembly.

When will it end? And what am I – one of the members of OC Transpo’s governance body – going to do about it?

Since 2022, I’ve been wrestling with myself over a feeling of powerlessness about OC Transpo, in conflict with my ability as a decision maker to affect change.

I have residents who are suffering immeasurably from a lack of service. Algonquin College students have the biggest uptake of the U-pass of all of Ottawa’s post-secondary institutions, but they can’t get to and from classes reliably. Bells Corners’ routes were cut during the pandemic, and the subsequent elimination of the 200 series through the New Ways to Bus changes have completely isolated that community from transit.

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